Introduction to +EV Betting
Key Takeaways
Positive Expected Value (+EV) Betting is a strategy designed to consistently place bets with an edge over the house, resulting in long-term profits. When combined with proper bet sizes, a bettor gains a theoretical advantage over the sportsbook.
+EV betting trades short-term certainty for long-term growth. Before proceeding, you need to understand the core math and risk-management concepts below. Review each guide in order before you start wagering.
Matched Betting
Before you dive into +EV it is important to understand matched betting. Matched betting is the best starting point for most sports bettors, due to its reduced risk.
- What is Matched Betting: Learn what matched betting is, and why its the right starting point for most bettors.
- Matched Betting vs. +EV Betting: Learn how risk-free promotional betting (matched betting) differs from edge-based wagering so you can decide which path—or combination—fits your bankroll and risk tolerance.
+EV Betting
+EV often has higher theoretical profits compared to matched betting, but comes with additional risk. Read the guides below before placing +EV bets.
- What Is Expected Value: Grasp EV as a universal concept so you can spot favorable scenarios in sports, casinos, or any probability-driven market.
- Implied Probability: Convert American, decimal, or fractional odds into real-world probabilities—the foundation for judging whether a price is +EV.
- Determining Fair Odds: Strip out the sportsbook’s margin (the “vig”) to reveal true, no-edge pricing. Comparing fair odds to market odds is how you find value.
- Kelly Criterion & Bet Sizing: Use a mathematically optimal stake size that balances growth and bankroll safety—crucial once you start placing +EV wagers.
- What is Certainty Equivalent and How It Impacts +EV Betting: Certainty equivalent influences whether to pursue matched betting or +EV betting by weighing the guaranteed profit of matched betting against the higher but uncertain expected profit of +EV betting for that promotion.
- +EV Misconceptions & Pitfalls: Bust common myths, understand variance, and prepare mentally for inevitable downswings so they don’t derail your strategy.
- +EV Settings: Dial in your devig methods to match your approach and risk tolerance.
- DarkHorse Odds +EV Bet Finder: Put the theory into practice: a step-by-step tour of our tool that surfaces real-time edges across major sportsbooks.
