SGP Correlation Calculator

What Is a Same Game Parlay?

A same game parlay, or SGP, is a parlay where every leg comes from the same game. A team to win, a player to score, and the total to go over, combined as one parlay. Sportsbooks heavily promote same game parlays because bettors enjoy them and they can carry significantly more vig than traditional bets. Because fair SGP odds are difficult to calculate and sportsbooks only offer one side of the market, they have more flexibility to build additional vig into the price, increasing their profit.

What Is Correlation in a Same Game Parlay?

In a normal parlay the legs are independent. Whether a baseball team wins has no impact on whether a football team wins. In a same game parlay the legs affect each other. They can have positive or negative correlation.

What Is Positive Correlation?

Events have positive correlation if one event happening increases the probability of another event happening.

Positive Correlation Examples

• If a player scores a touchdown, his team is more likely to win.
• If a quarterback throws three touchdowns, the over is more likely to hit.
• If a heavy favorite covers a large spread, the over is more likely to hit.
• If a quarterback throws for over 300 yards, a receiver is more likely to go over his receiving yards.
• If a quarterback throws zero touchdowns, his opponent is more likely to win.

What Is Negative Correlation?

Events have negative correlation if one event happening decreases the probability of another event happening.

Negative Correlation Examples

• If a player scores a touchdown, his teammate is less likely to score a touchdown (there's a limited number of possessions in football).
• If a quarterback throws three touchdowns, the under is less likely to hit.
• If a team goes over their team total points, the game under is less likely to hit.
• If a quarterback throws for over 300 yards, a receiver is less likely to go under his receiving yards.
• If a quarterback throws zero touchdowns, his team is less likely to win.

Sportsbooks know this and adjust odds for it. Positively correlated SGPs have lower odds than a standard parlay with legs of the same odds, because the combination is more likely than if the legs were independent. Negatively correlated legs increase the odds, but even with that increase they still might be worse than fair odds. The adjustment reflects the correlation, and it is never shown on the bet slip, which gives sportsbooks the ability to lower the final odds.

What Is an SGP Correlation Calculator?

An SGP correlation calculator determines how much correlation is added to an SGP. Enter the odds the sportsbook is offering for the SGP and the odds of each leg as a straight bet. The calculator will determine what the legs would pay as an independent parlay, how far the sportsbook has moved from that number, and how much correlation was priced in.

Finding SGP Value

The edge in same game parlays comes from finding correlation that a sportsbook prices incorrectly. When you believe two legs are more strongly linked than the price implies, the parlay is underpriced. Every sportsbook builds its own correlation model, and they do not all agree. One may price a running back to score a touchdown and his team to win as 8% more likely together; another may price it at 3%. The one that underestimates the correlation is offering a better price on the same outcome. Checking the correlation across sportsbooks is how you find value.

How the Math Works

The Eagles money line is -178 and Saquon Barkley to score a touchdown is -160. The sportsbook offers the two together as a same game parlay at +136.

Step 1. Price the Legs as an Independent Parlay

Convert to decimal odds and then multiply them together. Use the Odds Converter if necessary.

Step 2. Convert Both Prices to Implied Probability

Step 3. Determine the Correlation

The sportsbook is pricing this combination as about 8% more likely than the two legs would be independently, and paying +136 instead of +154 as a result. That 18-point gap is the cost of the correlation. Whether it is a fair cost depends on how strongly you think a Saquon touchdown really drives an Eagles win.

Why SGP Correlation Matters

Same game parlays are priced by models nobody outside the sportsbook can see. The bet slip shows a single number and gives no way to judge it. It is hard to devig because there are no odds available for the other side of the bet. Working backwards to the correlation turns that number into something you can evaluate: the sportsbook thinks these legs are 8% more likely together, do you agree? Framing it this way allows you to tell a valuable SGP from one with unfair odds.

It also shows where sportsbooks disagree with each other. Correlation models differ, and two sportsbooks pricing the same legs can land on very different parlay odds. The one that underrates the link between the legs is offering more value on the same combination.

Common Same Game Parlay Mistakes

• Assuming all SGPs have bad odds: A same game parlay paying less than the independent parlay is not automatically a bad price. Positive correlation is real, and the combination genuinely is more likely. The question is whether the sportsbook has priced the correlation correctly, not whether it exists.
• Ignoring the leg prices: Sportsbooks often price the individual legs inside an SGP worse than the same bets on the main board. The correlation adjustment sits on top of that, so an SGP can be expensive twice.