What Is a Second Chance Bet?
A Second Chance Bet, also called a no-sweat bet, is when you place a bet with your own cash, and if it loses, the sportsbook refunds the stake in Bonus Bets or Site Credit. DraftKings issues the same promotion as a bet-back token, and BetRivers calls it a Second Chance Bet. The names differ; the structure and the math are identical. Learn more in our Second Chance Bet Guides.
Does It Matter Which Bet Wins?
No. With the optimal hedge in place, your final profit is the same whether the Second Chance Bet wins or loses. That is the entire concept behind hedging your bet. You are not hoping the bet wins. You are not hoping it loses. Both paths have been designed to get you the same amount of profit.
Do I Hedge the First Part of a Second Chance Bet?
Yes. You hedge the initial Second Chance Bet. To do this properly you need to know what type of refund you will receive and set up the calculator to reflect that.
The Two Potential Outcomes
- The Second Chance Bet wins: The profit from the Second Chance Bet is more than the hedge at the other book loses. No refund is issued because none is needed. You have profited and completed the promotion.
- The Second Chance Bet loses: The hedge at the other book wins, and you receive a refund for losing the Second Chance Bet. If you stopped here you would lose money because the profit from the hedge is less than you lost from the Second Chance Bet. This is where the refund matters. You then convert that refund by hedging it. You do not use the Second Chance Bet Calculator for this. Use either the Bonus Bet Calculator or the Site Credit Calculator depending on which one you received.
The hedge is sized to make the two potential outcomes match. This means you need to know the type of refund you will receive and its assumed conversion percentage. Site Credit is typically converted at ~100% and Bonus Bets at ~70%.
Finding Second Chance Bet Conversions
The best Second Chance Bet conversions are often on odds in the +300 to +500 range, where the opposite side is as close as possible. For example +300 and -315 is better than +300 and -345. DarkHorse Odds' Second Chance Bet Finder compares available markets and calculates the recommended bet sizes and expected return for you. You can explore the demo site, or start a free trial.
How the Math Works
Note: The calculations below use decimal odds. If you are starting with a different odds format, first convert them to decimal odds using the Odds Converter.
Example: You have a $200 Second Chance Bet refunded as a Bonus Bet. You bet $200 on the home team at +315 (decimal 4.15) on Sportsbook A. The away team side is -350 (decimal 1.2857) on Sportsbook B. Assume that you can convert the Bonus Bet refund at 70%, so the refund is worth $140 in cash.
Step 1. Determine the Refund Value
\[
\begin{aligned}
\text{Refund Value} &= \text{Refund Amount} \times \text{Conversion Rate} \\
&= 200 \times 0.70 = \$140.00
\end{aligned}
\]
Step 2. Determine Hedge Bet Amount
\[
\begin{aligned}
\text{Hedge Bet Stake} &= \dfrac{\strut \text{Winnings} + \text{Stake} - \text{Refund Value}}{\strut \text{Hedge Bet Decimal Odds}} \\
&= \dfrac{\strut 630 + 200 - 140}{\strut 1.2857} = \$536.67
\end{aligned}
\]
Step 3. Verify the Profit on Both Sides
If the Second Chance Bet wins...
- Profit $630.00 from the Second Chance Bet
- Lose $536.67 from the hedge bet
- Net profit of $93.33
If the hedge bet wins...
- Profit $153.33 from the hedge bet
- Lose $200.00 from the Second Chance Bet
- Get a $200 Bonus Bet refund
- Use the Bonus Bet Calculator to convert the Bonus Bet Refund at 70% for $140 profit
- Net profit of $93.33
\[
\begin{aligned}
\text{Conversion Rate} &= \dfrac{\strut \text{Profit}}{\strut \text{Second Chance Bet Amount}} = \dfrac{\strut 93.33}{\strut 200} = 46.7\%
\end{aligned}
\]
Either way you are profiting $93.33, ~47% of the promotion's face value. Just remember if the Second Chance Bet loses you need to convert the refund using the appropriate calculator based on the type of refund you received. Actual returns depend on offer availability, market conditions, and individual execution.
The Refund Type Decides the Value
The single input that moves the answer most is what the refund is made of.
A Second Chance Bet refunded as Site Credit is worth substantially more (~70%) than one that is refunded as a Bonus Bet (~45-50%), which is why the refund type and assumed conversion rate must be accurate. You can adjust the assumed conversion rates as you see fit.
Second Chance Bets on 3-Way Markets
A Second Chance Bet on the draw of a 3-way money line is hedged the same way as any other, except that it takes two hedges instead of one.
Example: You have a $200 Second Chance Bet refunded as a Bonus Bet, which you expect to convert at 70%, so the refund is worth $140. You put it on the draw at +260 (decimal 3.60). The home team is +100 (decimal 2.00) at Sportsbook B and the away team is +300 (decimal 4.00) at Sportsbook C.
Step 1. Determine the Refund Value
\[
\begin{aligned}
\text{Refund Value} &= \text{Refund Amount} \times \text{Conversion Rate} \\
&= 200 \times 0.70 = \$140.00
\end{aligned}
\]
Step 2. Determine Each Hedge Amount
\[
\begin{aligned}
\text{Payout to Protect} &= \text{Winnings} + \text{Stake} - \text{Refund Value} \\
&= 520 + 200 - 140 = \$580.00 \\[6pt]
\text{Home Hedge Stake} &= \dfrac{\strut \text{Payout to Protect}}{\strut \text{Home Decimal Odds}} = \dfrac{\strut 580.00}{\strut 2.00} = \$290.00 \\[6pt]
\text{Away Hedge Stake} &= \dfrac{\strut \text{Payout to Protect}}{\strut \text{Away Decimal Odds}} = \dfrac{\strut 580.00}{\strut 4.00} = \$145.00
\end{aligned}
\]
Step 3. Verify the Profit on Every Outcome
If the Second Chance Bet wins...
- Profit $520.00 from the Second Chance Bet
- Lose $290.00 from the home hedge
- Lose $145.00 from the away hedge
- Net profit of $85.00
If the home hedge wins...
- Profit $290.00 from the home hedge
- Lose $200.00 from the Second Chance Bet
- Lose $145.00 from the away hedge
- Get a $200 Bonus Bet refund and convert it with the Bonus Bet Calculator at 70% for $140.00
- Net profit of $85.00
If the away hedge wins...
- Profit $435.00 from the away hedge
- Lose $200.00 from the Second Chance Bet
- Lose $290.00 from the home hedge
- Get a $200 Bonus Bet refund and convert it at 70% for $140.00
- Net profit of $85.00
\[
\begin{aligned}
\text{Conversion Rate} &= \dfrac{\strut \text{Profit}}{\strut \text{Second Chance Bet Amount}} = \dfrac{\strut 85.00}{\strut 200} = 42.5\%
\end{aligned}
\]
One of the three bets wins. Either way you profit $85.00, 42.5% of the promotion's face value. If the draw loses, the second conversion is where the $140 comes from, so the profit is not locked until that hedge settles.
