+EV Misconceptions and Pitfalls

Misconceptions

• “Every +EV bet will make me money”: In reality, +EV betting is profitable over the long run, but individual bets can and will lose. Think hundreds if not thousands of bets.
• “High EV means guaranteed profit”: A high expected value also often means higher variance and larger swings in your bankroll.
• “I can scale my bet size indefinitely”: Bankroll management is critical; even with +EV bets, over betting leads to risk of ruin.
• “+EV betting is the same as finding ‘sure bets’”: +EV simply means positive expectation, not a risk-free opportunity like matched betting.
• “If I find a +EV bet once, I can keep hitting it”: Sportsbooks adjust lines quickly, so +EV edges are often short-lived.
• ‍“EV is the only number that matters”: Ignoring Certainty Equivalent (CE) can lead to taking bets that are mathematically good but too risky for your bankroll and personal risk tolerance.

Pitfalls

• Chasing short-term losses: Abandoning a proven strategy after a losing streak undermines the math behind +EV betting.
• Neglecting bankroll strategy: Betting too much or too little can erase the advantage.
• Overlooking limits and account restrictions: Sportsbooks may limit or ban accounts that consistently exploit +EV.
• Ignoring correlation between bets: Multiple bets may be linked, reducing the effective EV.
• Failing to verify your edge: Relying on bad data, incorrect odds, or flawed calculations leads to betting into negative EV without realizing it.