Positive Expected Value Settings
Before proceeding make sure you understand the following topics.
- What Is Expected Value
- Implied Probability
- Determining Fair Odds
- Kelly Criterion
- +EV Misconceptions and Pitfalls
- Certainty Equivalent
Key Takeaways
Bankroll Strategy
There are two possible choices for bankroll strategy, Kelly Criterion and Fixed Bet Amount. It is highly recommended that you use Kelly Criterion. Betting with the Kelly Criterion is more profitable than using a fixed bet size because it adapts your stake to both your bankroll and the edge you have on a wager, allowing you to maximize long-term growth while minimizing the risk of ruin. A fixed bet amount ignores your bankroll size and the statistical edge you have on an individual wager, which can either underutilize strong opportunities or overexpose you to risk when your edge is smaller or your bankroll is lower. Kelly’s dynamic sizing ensures you bet more when the odds are in your favor and less when they are not.
Matched Bet Comparison Method
There are two options for Matched Bet Comparison Method, Certainty Equivalent (CE) and Expected Value. Using Certainty Equivalent is recommended over relying solely on Expected Value for promotions because CE factors in your personal risk tolerance, and bankroll. This means your decision-making aligns with the actual value you place on a bet, helping you avoid overexposure to volatile or high-risk offers that look good on paper but may not suit your bankroll or comfort level.
Devig Settings
There are two parts to Devig Settings, the source method, and the combination method.
Source Method
The source method is what Determines the Fair Odds from a single source (sportsbook). DarkHorse Odds provides several devig methods:
- Multiplicative
- Additive
- Power
- Shin
- Goto
- Probit
You can select a single devig method and apply it to a single sportsbook. Such as Multiplicative and Pinnacle. You can also further refine your devig method, by choosing the worst case of any of the devig methods above, or by blending the devig methods together via a weighted average.
Worst Case
When you select Worst Case, the devig method that has the highest odds, is selected. The highest odds = lower probability = most conservative.
Blend
Instead of Worst Case, you can choose to blend the devig methods together. This will use a weighted average, as set in the "Weights" tab for each devig method. The weights do not need to add up to 100%.
In the example below all the weights are even, and this is reflected in the pie chart.
In the example below the weights are not even. This is shown in the pie chart, with different methods having different size slices. Clicking on a method reveals the weight, and the percentage out of 100 that apply to that method.
Max Hold
The Max Hold settings removes any lines that have a hold above your set threshold. The larger a sportsbook's hold is, the less confident they are in the line, and devigging becoming less accurate.
Combination Method
Once you establish the devig method for a single source you can add additional sources.
If you have multiple devig sources selected, you can set each source to required or optional. If a source is required that source must have odds for a particular line to be considered in the +EV tools.
Worst Case
The same as selecting Worst Case for a devig source you can select Worst Case for the combination method. When you select Worst Case, the devig source that has the highest odds, is selected. The highest odds = lower probability = most conservative.
Blend
Instead of Worst Case, you can choose to blend the source methods together. This will use a weighted average, as set in the "Weights" tab for each source method. The weights do not need to add up to 100%.
In the example below all the weights are even, and this is reflected in the pie chart.
In the example below the weights are not even. This is shown in the pie chart, with different methods having different size slices. Clicking on a source reveals the weight, and the percentage out of 100 that apply to that source.
Minimum Market Size
The minimum market size setting removes any odds from the devig calculations where the available liquidity falls below your set threshold. Market size here refers to your maximum win amount. Your maximum win amount is what the counterparty stands to lose on the wager. The default is $500, and you can adjust the value your +EV settings. Setting it to $0 turns the filter off.
The larger the liquidity behind a price, the more capital at risk at those odds. That risk is a direct read on market confidence: a market that will lose $1,000 on a losing wager signals more confidence than one that will only lose $50. Lines backed by small liquidity are noisier, more easily moved, and devig less reliably.
When the top of book liquidity pool fails your threshold, the system steps down to the next price level that meets it and uses those odds as the devig source. If no liquidity pool on that source clears the threshold, the source is skipped for that line.
Why Max Win, Not Max Bet
The minimum market size in your +EV settings is measured by the max win on a wager rather than the max bet you can place. Max bet alone does not describe how much risk the other side is actually taking, because the same bet size implies very different risk and therefore confidence depending on the price.
Consider a $1,000 max bet available to you at two different prices:
- At -500, the counterparty risks $200 to win $1,000. Their downside is $200.
- At +500, the counterparty risks $5,000 to win $1,000. Their downside is $5,000.
Both lines show a $1,000 max bet available to you, but the underlying risk on the other side is not comparable. In the second example the risk to the opposite side is 25 times larger, $5,000 vs $200. Utilizing max win normalizes the comparison by looking at what the other side is willing to risk. That figure is the cleanest available proxy for how much confidence sits behind the price, which is what we care about when treating that price as a source of determining fair odds.
EV% Filter
You can set a min and max EV Percentage. The EV% Filter is designed to remove outliers. If a bet is 15% EV, chances are it is an outlier and may be best to avoid. This setting does not apply to promotional bets, such as Bonus Bets and Second Chance Bets.
