How To Use The DarkHorse Odds +EV Bet Finder
Key Takeaways
Before proceeding ensure you have read and understand the following guides:
What Is Expected Value
Expected value (EV) in sports betting is the long-term average outcome of a wager if it were placed repeatedly under the same conditions. It compares the true probability of an event with the odds offered by the sportsbook, showing whether a bet is profitable or unprofitable over time. A bet is said to have Positive Expected Value (+EV) if the bettor has a theoretical edge over the sportsbook, resulting in long term profits. A bet is said to have negative expected value (-EV) if a bettor does not have an edge and is likely to lose money in the long run. Read our Expected Value guide to learn more.
Implied Probability and Determining Fair Odds
To find +EV bets, you first need to understand implied probability, which is the chance of an outcome as suggested by the sportsbook’s odds, including their built-in margin. From there, you calculate fair odds by removing the vig (de-vigging) and estimating the fair probability of the outcome. Only by comparing these fair odds to the sportsbook’s offered odds can you determine whether a bet has positive expected value.
How To Find Positive Expected Value (+EV) Bets
DarkHorse Odds provides all the tools required to find +EV Bets.
Expected Value Settings
The first step to finding +EV bets is establishing your EV settings. Read our EV Settings guide for more details on how to customize your settings. DarkHorse Odds allows users to customize their EV settings.
Source Sportsbooks
Step one for EV Settings is choosing a sportsbook to be your source for fair odds. Most users choose a sharp sportsbook like Pinnacle or Circa.
Devig Method
Step two is choosing a de-vig method. DarkHorse Odds offers multiple de-vig methods to choose from.
- Multiplicative
- Additive
- Power
- Shin
- Goto
- Probit
In addition to choosing a single de-vig method you can choose to select the worst case de-vig method from any/all of the avaialbe methods offered. Alternatively, you can choose a blend, with custom weighting, of the offered de-vig methods.
Combination Method
Once you established a source sportsbook and de-vig method you can add additional source sportsbooks, each with their own de-vig method. Then you can choose either worst case from your selected sportsbooks, or a blend.
Using The Positive Expected Value Bet Finder
Now that your EV settings are established you are ready to use the +EV Bet Finder. If you have not already, you need to enable +EV in settings.
If you are new to using Bet Finders on DarkHorse Odds, start by reading our Tools & Features guides to learn how to use all the available features, such as filters and editing your Bet Slip.
Select the +EV Bet Finder:
In all of our guides, we filter to “Main Lines Only” as a way to avoid limits. Limits will significantly reduce your long-term earnings potential. Learn the best practices on preventing sportsbook limits in our Don't Get Limited guide. You can apply this by selecting Filters -> Main Lines Only. This is optional but highly recommended.
This sets Market Type to Money Line, Spread, and Total. It also sets Market Segment to Full Game+ and Full Game.
Select Your +EV Bet
Based on your Filters and EV Settings the best available +EV Bets are displayed.
Place Your +EV Bet
After selecting the bet you want from the table above, you are presented with the bet slip, which provides all the details needed to place a +EV bet. In this example, you would place a $75 bet on the Astros moneyline at +150.
+EV Bet Explanation
Clicking the "Explanation" button on the bet slip above shows the outcome explanation. The outcome explanation is a plain English description explaining exactly how the expected value of this bet is determined based on your EV settings. The expected value of this bet is $1.69.
Clicking the "Fair Odds Details" button above bring you to an overview of how the fair odds are calculated. In this example, it is the worst case of Circa and Pinnacle. Circa has the worst case fair odds at +144, based on source odds of -152/+136.
Clicking on Circa gives you a detailed breakdown of that sportsbooks devig method. In this case it is the Goto method with a fair odds calculation of +144.
