The "Low Holds" Fallacy
Key Takeaways
- Do not use low holds to convert promotions, it reduces your profit.
- To convert a promotion, use the appropriate Bet Finder.
- Low Holds are for churning volume, when you do not have a promotion.
The Problem with Low Holds
The core problem with Low Holds is misuse: they’re often applied to promotions, which reduces your profit. When one side of your matched bet involves a promotion, the goal should be optimal conversion—not minimal hold. To convert a promotion correctly, use the appropriate Bet Finder. Low Holds have their place, but only when churning volume without an active promotion.
Example: Second Chance and Bonus Bets
In this example, you have a $1,000 Bonus Bet on Caesars.
See the following screenshot. The top available money line conversion as presented by DarkHorse is 71.1%. This means 71.1% of your Bonus Bet is converted to profit. In this case that is a $711 profit. This bet has a hold of 2.23%.
The next screenshot shows another option with a low hold of 0.0%. However, notice that the Bonus Bet conversion rate is only 50%. This is significantly worse than 71.1%. Despite having a lower hold, this is a less profitable bet for converting your Bonus Bet.
Example: Site Credit
Let's look at an example where you have $1,000 of Site Credit on FanDuel.
See the following screenshot. The top available money line conversion as presented by DarkHorse is 97.9%. This means 97.9% of your Site Credit is converted to profit. In this case that is a $979 profit. This bet has a hold of 1.26%
The next screenshot shows another option. This has a low hold of 0.69%. However, notice that the Site Credit conversion rate is 1.9% worse. Despite having a lower hold, this is a less profitable bet for converting your Site Credit.
Example: Qualifying Bet
Another reason that DarkHorse Odds does not have low holds is that to guarantee an equal profit on all outcomes most qualifying bets are more complex than simply using a generic hedge calculator.
Here is an example where the promotional value is tied to your winnings. If you want to profit no matter the outcome of the game you need to adjust your hedge to compensate. The Qualifying Bet Finder does that for you.
Using the Qualifying Bet Finder results in equal profit no matter the outcome of the game. A generic hedge calculator tells you to place a Hedge Bet of $54 based on the lowest available hold.
If you followed this, here are the potential outcomes. One of which results in you losing money.
