The "Low Holds" Fallacy

Low Holds are a very primitive approach to Matched Betting which misses out on profit. If you don’t know what Low Holds are, you can skip this guide, but consider this an important part of your sports betting education.

The Problem with Low Holds

The basic problem with low holds is that they do not factor in that one side of the matched bet is a promotion that needs to be converted. This will often lead to cases where a matched bet with a lower hold results in a smaller profit.

Example: Risk Free and Free Bets

In this example, you have a $1,000 Free Bet on Caesars.

See the following screenshot. The top available money line conversion as presented by DarkHorse is 71.1%. This means 71.1% of your Free Bet is converted to profit. In this case that is a $711 profit. This bet has a hold of 2.23%.

The next screenshot shows another option with a low hold of 0.0%. However, notice that the Free Bet conversion rate is only 50%. This is significantly worse than 71.1%. Despite having a lower hold, this is a less profitable bet for converting your Free Bet.

Example: Site Credit

Let's look at an example where you have $1,000 of Site Credit on FanDuel.

See the following screenshot. The top available money line conversion as presented by DarkHorse is 97.9%. This means 97.9% of your Site Credit is converted to profit. In this case that is a $979 profit. This bet has a hold of 1.26%

The next screenshot shows another option. This has a low hold of 0.69%. However, notice that the Site Credit conversion rate is 1.9% worse. Despite having a lower hold, this is a less profitable bet for converting your Site Credit.

Example: Qualifying Bet

Another reason that DarkHorse Odds does not have low holds is that to guarantee an equal profit on all outcomes most qualifying bets are more complex than simply using a generic hedge calculator.

Here is an example where the promotional value is tied to your winnings. If you want to profit no matter the outcome of the game you need to adjust your hedge to compensate. The Qualifying Bet Finder does that for you.

Using the Qualifying Bet Finder results in equal profit no matter the outcome of the game. A generic hedge calculator tells you to place a Hedge Bet of $54 based on the lowest available hold.

If you followed this, here are the potential outcomes. One of which results in you losing money.