Conversion describes how much profit you get from a Matched Bet. It is measured as a percentage of your promotion bet amount. For example, if you have a $100 Free Bet and convert it into $71, that’s a 71% conversion.
Target Conversion Rates
A frequent question is “What is a good conversion rate for Free Bets, Site Credit, ...?” There is no exact answer to this. Promotion conversions will vary based on available books, bankroll, type of promotion, markets you are willing to bet, and even what leagues are in season. For example, MLB is unique in that it rarely has main line odds longer than +300. This can drive up Free Bet and Risk Free Bet conversions during MLB season.
For a matched bettor that sticks to main lines, and has access to 5+ books, here are some general guidelines for target conversion percentages.
- Site Credit: 98-100%
- Free Bet: 68-70%
- Risk Free Bet Refunded as a Free Bet 46-49%
- Risk Free Bet Refunded as Site Credit 68-70%
Profit Boosts and Qualifying Bets are intentionally not listed here. Those promotions can have unique criteria that can drastically adjust the conversion.
DarkHorse Odds assumes an expected Site Credit and Free Bet conversion rate when calculating Risk Free Bets and certain Qualifying Bets. If you find your Site Credit and Free Bets are typically different from the Dark Horse defaults, you can change them in your settings.
Here is an example of a $100 Free Bet on DraftKings using the best money line available vs a -110 spread.
Notice the profit from using a -110 spread on a Free Bet is little more than half the amount of the money line conversion.
Here is an example of a $100 Site Credit on FanDuel using the best money line available vs a -110 spread.
Notice the profit from using a -110 spread for a Site Credit conversion is ~10% lower than other available conversions.
Arbitrage conversions are measured slightly differently. Since there is no promotion involved, the arbitrage conversion is based on the combined stake of your bets. For example, a primary bet of $1000 and a hedge bet of $500 are placed to win a total of $40. The combined stake is $1500. A $1500 stake to win $40 is a conversion rate of 2.67%.