Matched Betting vs. +EV
Key Takeaways
What is Matched Betting?
Matched betting is a technique that mathematically guarantees profit from sports betting by using promotions. Matched bettors place two opposing bets, ensuring all possible outcomes are covered. For example one bet on the home team to win and the other one the away team to win. One of the two bets is a promotion and the other is your money. Based on the type of promotion and the odds of the bet you can stagger the bet amounts in a way that guarantees equal profit no matter who wins the game. Watch the video below for a quick overview of how matched betting works.
What is +EV Betting?
Positive Expected Value, often called +EV, betting is a strategy that involves a bettor finding wagers where they have a theoretical mathematical advantage over the sportsbook/casino. They do this by finding lines where the implied probability in the odds is lower than the "true" probability of an outcome happening. Over a large sample size, this advantage leads to consistent profits. Unlike matched betting, +EV betting involves a deeper market analysis, variance handling, and a long-term approach to ensure profits. +EV betting is also subject to losing money based on small sample size variation and/or miscalculating what you believe to be the "true" probability.
Comparing Matched Betting and +EV Betting
While matched betting focuses on hedging promotions to profit with little to no risk, +EV betting revolves around identifying an inherent probabilistic edge. Both strategies have the same goal of securing a profit, but they operate under different risk profiles and time horizons. Matched betting, generally lower risk but limited by the availability of promotional offers, is often seen as a stepping stone for newer bettors. The largest and long-term profits from matched betting come from Becoming A Sportsbook VIP. +EV betting demands stronger analytical skills and a tolerance for short-term ups and downs, but its returns can be more sustainable and scalable once a bettor gains experience and employs proper bankroll management.
Matched Betting and +EV Betting Tools
DarkHorse Odds provides tools for both matched betting and +EV betting. We also provide extensive guides on both topics so you can be sure to choose the approach that best fits your situation.
Who Might Matched Betting Be Right For?
- Beginners or Low-Risk Takers: It’s a relatively straightforward way to make consistent, low-risk profits off sportsbook promotions.
- Limited Bankroll Bettors: A smaller bankroll might mean a higher risk of substantial losses. Matched betting is a great way to quickly and safely grow your bankroll.
- Time-Constrained Bettors: Once you learn the basics, matched betting can be methodical and quick to execute when using the DarkHorse Odds Bet Finders.
Who Might +EV Betting Be Right For?
- Analytical Thinkers: If you like finding hidden edges through statistical analysis, line comparisons, and market inefficiencies.
- Long-Term Strategists: +EV bettors accept variance and stay disciplined through losing streaks, aiming for consistent profits over a large number of bets.
- Higher Risk, Higher Reward: Even with a statistical edge over the house, there’s inevitable short-term volatility.
- Experienced Bettors: This approach typically appeals to those with some background in sports markets, odds calculations, and bankroll management.
- Bettors Who’ve Exhausted Promotional Offers: Once you’ve maxed out or used up most signup bonuses, +EV betting provides a path to keep finding profitable opportunities.
