Positive Expected Value Quick Start
This quick start guide is designed for people that are already familiar with the following topics.
Additionally, you should already know that +EV betting requires a large sample size to realize the theoretical gains, and is subject to variance unlike matched betting.
Enable +EV
In users settings you need to enable +EV.
Establish Your Custom +EV Settings
Read our EV Settings guide for a more detailed walkthrough.
Source Sportsbook
You can select which sportsbook you want to be the source of fair odds.
De-vig Method
You can select a single de-vig method from our available options. You can also select worst case or even a blend of any available de-vig method. For blend you can set custom weights for each method.
Combination Method
After you have setup a source sportsbook and a de-vig settings for that sportsbook, you can add additional source sportsbook. Each source sportsbook can have its own devig settings. Once you setup multiple source sportsbooks you can customize your top level combination method to be either worst case or a blend of the source sportsbooks. Just like de-vig methods, if you choose blend you can apply custom weights to each source sportsbook.
Finally, you can set each source sportsbook to either required or optional.
Bankroll Strategy
You can choose between Kelly Criterion or a fixed bet amount. We recommend using Kelly Criterion for bet sizing.
Matched Bet Comparison Method
All of our promotional Bet Finders, such as Bonus Bet, also all +EV bets. You can change whether the sort order is based strictly on the +EV or Certainty Equivalent. Certainty Equivalent (CE) answers the questions how much would I need in guaranteed money to walk away from placing a +EV bet. A simple example is if you have a $100 Bonus Bet and the highest expected value is $71, and the highest matched bet conversion is $70, is the risk associated with an extra $1 in expected value worth it compared to return from a converting that Bonus Bet via matched betting. Read our Certainty Equivalent Guide to learn more.
Use the +EV Bet Finder
Now that all your +EV Settings are established you can use the EV to identify +EV bets.
As always we have a plain English breakdown of the math behind the Bet Finder results.
Use the Promotional Bet Finders
All the DarkHorse Odds Promotional Bet Finders, such as Profit Boosts, allow you to display only matched betting results, only +EV results, or both. Use the Betting Stratgey drop down to select the results you want. The example below shows both +EV and matched betting results.
