FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday occurs every Tuesday for the length of the MLB season. It works like this: place a $25 bet on any player to hit a home run, and get a $5 Free Bet for every home run hit in that game, whether your bet settles as a win or loss. Max $25 in Free Bets per game. This promotion can be repeated for every MLB game that takes place on Tuesdays, which is normally 15 games. That’s over 350 games a year.

Like most other promotions, the Matched Bet (hedging) approach works for Dinger Tuesday. However, because of the large number of games involved, there’s another approach to consider, the +EV approach. Each has its pros and cons, read on to learn more.

## What is +EV?

+EV can get complicated, but in its simplest form, it’s betting in a way where you expect to profit over an extended period. An important thing to understand for +EV betting is that because you don’t hedge, it is subject to risk and variance.

If you’re not familiar with variance, think of flipping a coin. When you flip a coin, it has a 50% chance of heads and a 50% chance of tails. However, flipping a coin ten times does not mean it will be exactly 5 heads and 5 tails. It could be 7 heads and 3 tails. That is because there is variance, in this case, 70% heads and 30% tails is 20 percentage points away from the average. If you flipped a coin 100 times, chances are you will get much closer to 50% heads and 50% tails. This pattern of getting closer to the average continues as the sample size increases. Flipping a coin a million times will land very close to 50% heads, 50% tails.

Note: The +EV concepts outlined in this guide are very simplified. +EV could get an entire series of guides as its own topic. What is explained here is meant to be a useful introduction.

## +EV vs Matched Betting

Here is a high-level comparison of the two approaches as they apply to this promotion.

*The Matched Betting Approach*

- Almost zero risk of loss
- Works with smaller bankrolls
- Does not require betting on all games every Tuesday
- House Rule differences when hedging player props may increase the risk of bets not being graded the same
- Hedging requires placing player prop bets on the hedge book, which are more likely to result in limits than main lines

*The +EV Approach*

- Probable higher profits than hedging
- Subject to variance (potentially losing money), especially in the near term
- To get the large sample set required for +EV, you should commit to doing every game from this promo every Tuesday
- Due to possible losses and the number of bets required, a larger bankroll is needed
- If FanDuel cancels this promotion mid-season, it will reduce the sample size and increase your variance and risk.

## Important Factors

Before diving into the different approaches, here are some factors to consider:

- Promotion sample size: ~15 games a week for 26 weeks = 390 games. That is a larger sample size than all other promotions.
- Home runs: In 2021 there were an average of 2.38 home runs per game. So far, in 2022, it is 1.8 per game. We assume an average of 2.0 HRs per game, as it’s in the middle and makes the math simple.
- Free Bet Value: 2 HRs per game equals a $10 Free Bet.
- Expected Conversion Rate: 70% Free Bet conversion turns the average $10 Free Bet into $7.
- Cost to Hedge: Unless there’s arbitrage available, making a hedge bet means there is a total cost for the matched bet. This is the cost to qualify for the promotion before any Free Bets are awarded and converted.

## Matched Betting Approaches

There are 3 basic Matched Betting approaches to this promotion. The $1 Loss approach makes the most profit given the assumptions that are made.

**Arbs**: Place matched bets that are $0 loss or arbitrage

- Use this Bet Finder Preset to identify the matched bets.
**Ignore the profit values on the bet finder**. See the last section, Dinger Tuesday Bet Finder, for more information. - Assumptions:
- Arbs are less common. Assuming 5 games have arbs available.
- Assuming an average $1 profit on each $25 arb bet, for a total of $5 profit, before any home runs are hit.
- $10 Free Bet x 70% Conversion = $7 promotional value
- $7 promotional value + $1 arb value = $8 profit per game
- $8 x 5 games = $40 weekly profit
- $40 x 26 weeks = $1,040 season long profit

**$1 Loss**: Place matched bets on every game with an average of $1 loss per matched bet.

- Use this Bet Finder Preset to identify the matched bets.
**Ignore the profit values on the bet finder**. See the last section, Dinger Tuesday Bet Finder, for more information. - Assumptions:
- This will increase the number of available bets. Assuming 10 games fit this criteria.
- Assuming an average $1 loss on each matched bet, this totals a $10 loss before any home runs are hit.
- $10 Free Bet x 70% Conversion = $7 promotional value
- $7 promotional value - $1 cost to hedge = $6 profit per game
- $6 x 10 games = $60 weekly profit
- $60 x 26 weeks = $1,560 season long profit

**$4 Loss**: Place matched bets on every game with an average of $4 loss per matched bet.

- Use this Bet Finder Preset to identify the matched bets.
**Ignore the profit values on the bet finder**. See the last section, Dinger Tuesday Bet Finder, for more information. - Assumptions:
- You bet all 15 games.
- Betting all the available games will yield an average of $4 loss per matched bet.
- Assuming an average $4 loss on each matched bet, this totals a $60 loss before any home runs are hit.
- $10 Free Bet x 70% Conversion = $7 promotional value
- $7 promotional value - $4 cost to hedge = $3 profit per game
- $3 x 15 games = $45 weekly profit
- $45 x 26 weeks = $1,170 season long profit

Here is a single-week view on possible profit/loss based on the number of HRs hit across all games with the assumed loss from the matched bets for the Arb, $1 Loss, and $4 Loss approaches.

## The +EV Approach

**+EV**: Research and bet on players where the true odds of them hitting a home run are as close to if not greater than the odds listed by FanDuel.

- You risk $375 from the 15 (unhedged) $25 bets
- Assumptions:
- You bet all 15 games
- +500 average odds converts to ~15% implied probability
- -7% EV = -$1.75, this is the expected value of one unhedged HR bet*
- $7 - $1.75 = $5.25 profit per game
- $5.25 x 15 games = $78.75 weekly profit
- $78.75 x 26 weeks = $2,047.50 season long profit

*Most HR props have between a 6-7% hold, compared to the standard 4% for a main line.

Here is a single-week view on possible profit/loss based on the number of HRs hit across all games with the +EV approach. It examines all the potential outcomes from up to 55 HRs across all of the games against winning between 0 and 5 of your home run bets. If you win more than 5 bets there is more profit.

The range of -$38 through $123 are the most likely outcomes given the assumptions made.

In this example, we’re assuming a ~15% chance to win one bet. When placing 15 bets, here are the chances of winning multiple bets:

- 0 bets won: 8.7%
- 1 bet won: 23.1%
- 2 bets won: 28.6%
- 3 bets won: 21.8%
- 4 bets won: 11.5%
- 5 bets won: 4.5%

**One final note for the +EV route. To reduce variance (and reduce your risk) you should bet on every game, every week. This gives you the largest possible sample size.**

## Dinger Tuesday Bet Finder

The Bet Finders on DarkHorse are designed for matched bets where the promotional value is fixed. Since this is not the case with Dinger Tuesday, we’ll be using the Bet Finder a little differently. In this case, we’ll be using the Qualifying Bet Finder to identify the matched bets we want to make, but the displayed profit will be incorrect. We will leverage the ‘Reward Value’ field to filter for the matched bets we are interested in. See the screenshot below.

Setting the Reward Value to $2 will filter out anything above a $2 loss. This is used for the $1 Loss approach. Remember that the $1 Loss is an average, not a cutoff.