The Importance of Your First 20 Bets

The first 20 bets placed with a sportsbook, scrutiny from the risk management team is at its highest. Bookmakers closely monitor new accounts to determine whether a bettor exhibits signs of sharp or professional betting. One key indicator they watch is how often a bettor beats the closing line, which is a strong signal of "sharp" bettor. A casual bettor typically beats the closing line only 3-5 times within their first 20 bets, while a sharp bettor might achieve this as many as 13 times. This difference is critical because frequent line-beating flags an account for getting limited.

What Is Beating the Closing Line?

Beating the closing line means placing a bet at odds that are better than the final odds offered right before the event begins, known as the "closing line." For example, if you bet on the home team at +110 early in the day, but by game time, the odds drop to -110, you've beaten the closing line. The closing line is typically the most accurate reflection of the true probability of an outcome because it's shaped by all the available market information. Bettors who consistently beat the closing line are seen as having an edge, as they are getting better value compared to what the market ultimately believes is fair. This ability to regularly beat the closing line is a strong indicator of sharp or professional betting and is something sportsbooks closely monitor.

How Matched Bettors Are Affected by Soft Lines

Matched bettors, however, face a unique challenge. Since matched betting often involves finding opportunities where one line is off from the market average, often referred to as a “soft” line, the likelihood of beating the closing line increases. Soft lines occur when sportsbooks haven't fully adjusted to market conditions, offering odds that are temporarily more favorable than the closing line. This presents a dilemma: while soft lines increase the immediate profit on individual bets, they also increase the chances of being flagged by the sportsbook’s risk team early on.

Strategies to Protect Your Account

One strategy to reduce this risk is to wait until closer to game time before placing bets. As the event approaches, the market typically becomes more efficient, and the lines tighten, making it harder to beat the closing line. By placing bets later, bettors can avoid the telltale sign of consistently beating the line, which helps them appear more like a casual, recreational bettor. Although this approach may reduce the potential profit from individual bets, it helps protect the long-term viability of the betting account.

Sticking to main lines on large sports, such as NFL, NBA, NBA, and NCAAF (ranked teams), is another effective tactic. Bookmakers tend to be more lenient with betting activity on high-volume markets, as these are harder to be exploited. By focusing on these larger markets and avoiding niche or obscure bets, bettors can further minimize the risk of being flagged and limited by the sportsbook. This tactic keeps the account active longer, allowing the bettor to continue profiting from future promotions and offers. Learn more in our Avoiding Small Markets guide.

In the end, while the initial profits from the first 20 bets might be slightly lower by avoiding soft lines and beating the closing line, the long-term benefits far outweigh the short-term gain. A sustainable, unrestricted account offers far more profit potential over time than a quickly limited one. For matched bettors, maintaining account longevity is key, and managing the first 20 bets with care is an essential part of ensuring continued success in the long run.