PromoGuy Review
Introduction
Before we review PromoGuy, let's do a high level overview of Positive Expected Value (+EV) Betting. It is important to understand that +EV Betting is traditional gambling because you are not hedging your bet. You are at risk of losing money unlike matched betting.
What is PromoGuy?
PromoGuy is a +EV source that transparently and consistently shows a profit from sports betting. They have a discord server, X (formerly Twitter) handle, and a website with +EV Betting resources.
What Is +EV Betting?
Note: This is just a brief overview of +EV Betting.
+EV Betting is when the bets you place have a theoretical profit in the long run. This happens when the actual odds of an outcome are sufficiently different from the odds a sportsbook has listed. A simple way to think of it is in relation to a coin toss. We know that there is a 50% chance of heads and a 50% chance of tails. A 50% probability is equivalent to American Odds of +100. If you bet $100, you profit $100 on a winning bet and lose $100 on a losing bet. If you continually bet on tails at +100 odds, in theory, you should break even. Over a very large sample size, the number of times the outcome is tails will approach 50%.
If you could bet on tails at +110 odds, which is equivalent to 47.62% probability, you have a theoretical advantage over the sportsbook. In other words, you can profit when the actual odds of something happening are greater than the odds a sportsbook has set. In the coin toss example at +110 odds, if you place a $100 bet on tails at +110 odds 10 times and it is split 5 heads/5 tails, you would win $550 and lose $500. A net profit of $50. If it is not a 50/50 split of heads/tails, then your profit could go up, or you could lose money. The larger the sample size, the better the chance the result will match the expected outcome. If you flip a coin 10 times it could easily be 7 heads and 3 tails. If you flip it one hundred, one thousand, or better yet, a million times, the results will get closer to 50/50. What is unique about coin tosses is that we know it is a 50/50 endeavor. With sports betting knowing the true probability of an event is much less clear.
Things to consider when +EV betting?
When getting started with +EV Betting, there are a few important factors to consider to see if it is right for you.
Determining the True Odds
How will you determine the true odds of an outcome happening, which is needed to see if you have an advantage over the sportsbook? What is your source of truth? Many people use "sharp" sportsbooks such as Pinnacle to do this; others may have their own algorithms and models. One thing that is important to remember is that sportsbooks do not set the odds based on what they think the true probability of that outcome is. They set it between what they think the true probability is and where they think the money will split from bets they receive. This reduces their risk and increases their profit.
Risk Tolerance and Bankroll
With +EV Betting, you will have downswings; that's simply how it works. There will be times when you place a large number of bets in a row that all lose. Theoretically, these bets may have had an advantage over the house, but weird things happen in sports. Are you okay with going on a losing streak, or will you chase losses that take a small downturn and make it into a larger problem? Is your bankroll large enough to sustain a string of losses? Are your bets sized appropriately via Kelly Criterion?
Mental Aspect
With +EV Betting, there may be a mental burden that matched betting does not have. With matched betting, the outcome of the game does not matter; you do not have a rooting interest, and there's really no need to watch the game. With +EV betting, you do have a rooting interest. Are you ok with the mental impact this may have? This may be enjoyable for some, but for others, it can be a large distraction and burden to watch the game, check scores, and constantly check betting outcomes.
Limits
When placing +EV bets, you are attempting to beat the odds set by the sportsbook. This is more likely to happen on small markets, such as player props and alternate lines. Betting on these markets is more likely to result in limits. Learn more about limits in our Avoiding Small Markets and Don't Get Limited guides.
Pricing
PromoGuy Plus
- Discord server with premium picks
- $19 per month
- 50% off the first month using the button below
PromoGuy
- Free picks posted on X (Formerly Twitter)
Features
The most important thing about PromoGuy is that they are transparent with their betting history. Some people claim to have a profitable track record for betting, but that is cause they edit their betting history. PromoGuy has a clear and easy-to-follow tracker that has shown consistent profits for over 12 months. This cannot be understated. Clear tracking over time is the most important thing to consider when paying for a +EV service. PromoGuy has this, and we recommend avoiding anyone who is not transparent about their betting history.
PromoGuy looks in a variety of places to find +EV bets. They look for edges when a sportsbook has odds far enough from "true" that the bet has a positive expected value. They examine a variety of promotions ranging from odds boosts to stepped-up parlays, Second Chance Parlays, and more.
These are discussed in detail on their discord to find profitable bets and ways to use promotions and boosts (that can't be hedged). Their X (formerly Twitter) handle @PromoGuyUS posts a limited selection of their picks. An additional service offered in the PromoGuy Plus discord server is identifying when sportsbooks provide a "bad boost." Not all boosted odds sportsbooks lists are +EV. PromoGuy evaluates and identifies which boosts to avoid, so you do not have to determine which ones to play.
Pros and Cons
Pros
- Transparent history and tracking
- Low Price Point
- Active discord with +EV discussion
- Responsive customer service
- Bad Boosts Alerts
Cons
- Risks associated with +EV betting (not unique to PromoGuy)